A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
